AROUND THE NATION
March 2, 2010
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Statistically Speaking, Duke is a Final Four Lock
Is Duke ready for a serious run at the national
title?
While the Blue Devils are positioned for a top seed,
most pundits see them being a second tier title
hopeful behind sexier teams like Kansas and
Kentucky.
The knock on Duke is that they take the opposition
out behind the woodshed at home but lose that killer
instinct on the road. All four of their losses have
come away from Cameron Indoor Stadium.
But really, don't all good teams have most of their
struggles on the road? Both of Kentucky's losses on
the season were away games and the same holds true
for Kansas.
Therefore, I'm not buying into the notion that Duke
should be shortchanged because of the occasional
road game hiccup. So why do I feel like this team
isn't being taken seriously this season?
The program's recent history hasn't helped matters.
Duke hasn't won an ACC regular season title since
the 2005-06 season and it's been nearly six years
since the program's last Final Four appearance.
Believe it or not, that's the longest Final Four
drought for Duke since Mike Krzyzewski took over the
program back in 1980.
In the 90's, we got used to penciling the Dukies
into a Final Four slot in our office brackets, and
more often than not they made us look good. Now that
the Final Four is no longer the Coaches vs.
Krzyzewski Classic, the perception is that they
can't dribble and chew gum at the same time in
Durham.
Granted, I'm not saying this edition of the Blue
Devils is as loaded as the runner up team from
1998-99 or the championship team from 2000-01. I'll
definitely take my accident case to the firm of
Battier, Boozer & Dunleavy before I even consider
going with Scheyer, Singler & Smith.
But Duke's current trio of distinction is a pretty
solid bunch. They're all averaging over 17 points a
contest and hoist most of the long distance shots
for a team that's 21st nationally in 3-point
percentage at 39.1%
Now that I bring up statistics, it's in that area
where Duke's strengths are most evident.
That 39.1% mark from 3-point range is in line with
what last year's national champion North Carolina
team (they shot 38.7%). But the similarities don't
stop there.
In terms of offensive efficiency (that would be
points scored per 100 possessions), North Carolina
led the country last season at 124.2. Currently,
it's Duke that's topping the offensive efficiency
ratings at 122.4.
If you flip it over to defensive efficiency, Coach
K's team is actually performing a little better than
Carolina did last season. The Blue Devils currently
check in at third nationally at 85.9, compared to an
89.6 mark for the Heels a season ago.
The ability to take care of the rock is arguably the
biggest reason that the Heels made their title run
last season. They finished fourth nationally in
assist-to-turnover ratio at 1.45.
Duke is definitely in that ballpark right now with a
1.28 assist-to-turnover ratio, a figure that ranks
28th in the country.
I'll admit that comparing a top five team from this
season to last season's national champ isn't an
apples to apples type of thing. But it does show
that this Duke team is actually pretty doggone good
once you crunch the numbers.
Hey, don't get me wrong, this team has its weak
spots, foremost among them being a frontcourt that
won't keep Bill Self or Jim Calipari up at night
with fits of worry.
But once the dust has settled on Selection Sunday,
really study the bracket that Duke makes it into.
You might get a 90's kind of feeling all over again.
John Stansberry is in his thirteenth season as
a senior writer for collegeinsider.com. Check out
John's blog
LonelyTailgater.com.
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