John Stansberry's College Basketball Notebook

Things I think I might sorta know about this NCAA Tournament

March 16, 2011

Every doggone year I do the same thing, and every year I agonize over it. I get my March Madness bracket and just LABOR over it, like it’s the LSAT and I’m trying to get into law school.

Some years I’ve done pretty well, and other years, well, other years my bracket looked as if a circus monkey filled it out. But with less than 10 hours to go before the first play-in opening round game or whatever that hell you call it is going to tip off, I still haven’t filled out a bracket.

At this point, with the deadline so close, I’m going to do something I’ve never done before: give myself a five minute time limit to fill out the bracket and then be done with it.

I don’t want to deal with the frustration this time around. In the past I’ve pondered the thing for hours, researched stats, filled it completely out, and then gone back to it because there was some 5/12 game I suddenly wanted to switch around. You know what that does? It starts the whole damn process over again.

So I’m going to go with the things I think I might sorta know about this field and just have at it. So here goes:

I’ve talked myself into thinking that 15th seeded UCSB is going to take out 2nd seeded Florida in the Southeast Region. In Tampa no less. Do I have that much against the Gators? Not really, I’m not holding that loss to Kentucky in the SEC Tourney final against them to the degree that others are.

I guess I’m just of the mindset that UCSB, despite a decidedly lackluster regular season, might be playing extremely loose. They went dancing last year, slept through most of the campaign and probably didn’t really expect to make this tournament. Therefore, the pressure on the Gauchos is even lower than it normally is for a 15 seed.

UCSB is actually a decent defensive team, ranking first in the Big West blocked shots (4.2 bpg) and steals (7.3 spg). And with two reliable scorers in juniors Orlando Johnson (21.1 ppg) and James Nunnally (16.4 ppg), points in crunch time probably won’t be an issue for them. Okay, I’ve done it, I’ve talked myself into this upset special.

Everyone, and I mean EVERYONE, keeps telling me that 14th seed Belmont is going to take out 3rd seed Wisconsin in the Southeast. Heck, I’m leaning that way as well, just look at how Rick Byrd’s team dominated the Atlantic Sun. The Bruins are forcing an INSANE 19.2 turnovers a game.

In Wisconsin, you would think that Belmont has the perfect matchup. Why? Because Wisconsin doesn’t claim a huge edge in terms of overall athleticism. Yup, nobody is going to confuse the ‘10-’11 Badgers with being the ‘90-’91 Running Rebels. Also, Bo Ryan’s team hasn’t exactly been playing its best basketball in the last week and a half.

But don’t sell the Badgers short because of their recent swoon. They’ve committed just 229 turnovers in 31 contests to this point, and a team that takes care of the basketball to this degree is a team Belmont will have difficulty with. As badly as I wanna follow the crowd and pick the upset in this one, my gut is telling me to go with Wisconsin.

I have been singing the praises of San Diego State all season, so much so that many people believe I’m now a bigger Aztec fan than Marshall Faulk. I’ve stuck with this team this far, so I might as well stick with them even further.

Doing so implies that I might even pick SDSU over the top seed in their region, defending national champ Duke. And Duke will be that much better if freshman point guard Kyrie Irving is available and plays effectively.

I’d feel a lot better about the Aztecs if they had a more reliable scoring option on the wing. But any offensive deficiencies this team has are for the large part masked by solid defensive play. In Ken Pomeroy’s latest defensive ratings, SDSU is fourth nationally, right behind Duke.

Also, I’ll always give the time of day to a team that can rebound, and the Aztecs have a healthy +6.7 margin on the season. Yeah, I’ve talked myself into going a little further with this team.

There’s an awful lot to like about Kansas, the top seed in the Southwest Region. The Jayhawks seem capable of hitting another switch offensively to get that 3 or 4 minute spurt that’s needed to pull away. They’re the country’s best shooting team (51.8%) and one of the best at generating second chance points (+7.7 rebound margin).

But I felt so much more positive about last year’s Kansas team than I do about this one. And as you recall, that bunch couldn’t get past Northern Iowa in the ‘10 NCAA Tournament. I’ve just got this nagging feeling that the current Jayhawk backcourt can be had by the right kind of team, say, a team like the Southwest’s 4 seed, Louisville.

If these teams hook up, I feel good about Louisville’s chances. The Cardinals have generated an impressive 546 turnovers on the season, and like I said, I think KU’s guards (Tyshawn Taylor especially) are susceptible to pressure. I’ll look silly if Kansas ends up cutting down the nets, but hey, I’ve already made up my mind.

I think I wrote off Vanderbilt over a week ago, and I’m sticking with that notion. That’s because Kevin Stallings’s team flat out can’t take care of the basketball. The Commodores are -0.9 in turnover margin, a figure that ranks 243rd nationally.

If fact, Vanderbilt has turned it over 80 more times than its first round opponent, Atlantic 10 champ Richmond. Another feather in Richmond’s cap is point guard Kevin Anderson, who’s started 128 straight games at point guard. Never underestimate the importance of solid guard play in this tournament.

In last year’s tournament, Vandy was taken out in the first round by Murray State. I’ve convinced myself that history will repeat itself this week.

Okay, I’ve now blazed through the brackets, taking the things I think I might know and coming up with this Final Four:

East - Syracuse (?!?!?)
West - San Diego State (I can’t quit the Aztecs)
Southwest - Notre Dame (How did that happen?)
Southeast - Pittsburgh (Only #1 seed I showed love to)

Now that I look at that, I’ve got that old urge to do some more bracket readjustment. Then again, screw it, I’ll keep this train wreck so all of you can have something to laugh at.

John Stansberry is a senior writer for collegeinsider.com. EMAIL JOHN