June 21, 2009

There was a time, not so long ago, when size ruled the NBA draft. In the era of Magic and Kareem, Bird and McHale, Jordan and Pippen, one thing was clear: when scouting for the next big thing, choose sure-fire size over potential skill, all day, every day. Want to play PG in the league? Be 6’3 or taller. Want to play the two? I hope you’re 6’5, bud. 7’0 power forwards became the norm, 6’10 small forwards as well, and bust after bust entered the league, as none had any of the necessary basketball skills to sustain a thriving career.

Remember guards Harold Miner, Greg Graham, Reece Gaines, and Felipe Lopez? Size at the 2 got them into the NBA. Lack of skill sent them right back out. Keon Clark, Robert Swift, Hilton Armstrong, and Curtis Borchardt came in on the size train, but none have so far shown any NBA skills worth their lofty draft status. The past few years, however, something surprising has happened. Undersized players, often second round picks or undrafted rookies, have made a major impact in the NBA, and have forced a reexamination of the scouting system for many a front office. If an Eddie House, Nate Robinson, or JJ Barea can succeed as an undersized two, there must be others. If Paul Millsap, Leon Powe, and Chuck Hayes can produce as 6’7 power forwards, they can’t be the only ones. And so, as we progress towards the 2009 NBA draft, teams may be willing to roll the dice on undersized players earlier than any time in the past.

Ten years ago, the thought of a DeJuan Blair or Stephen Curry as a first round pick would be laughable – they would be considered far too short for the pro game. No team would risk its reputation by making such players anything more than second rounder or free agent invite. Perception dictated only a future hall-of-famer like Charles Barkley could exceed the expectations warranted by his stature and achieve greatness. Yet here we are today, and both players expect to be drafted in the first 20, and in fact left school with eligibility remaining to do so.

Joining them will be James Johnson (Wake Forest), Marcus Thornton (LSU), Ty Lawson (UNC), and many other undersized players expecting to hear their names on draft day. Guys like Jon Brockman (Washington), Jeff Adrien (UConn), and Damion James (Texas) are getting an honest NBA look, instead of being instantly shipped off to Europe due to being something short of 6 feet, 10 inches. Refreshing as all this may be, ultimately the performance of this large class of undersized NBA prospects will dictate if their “inches too short” college brethren will get the same opportunities in years to come.

If they all fizzle, while vertically-gifted projects like DeMar DeRozan, Jrue Holiday, and BJ Mullens blossom, undersized players will soon resume their role as short-changed draft afterthoughts, hoping to scratch and claw their way to a free agent camp or summer league invite.


What’s The Point?

I’ll leave the discussion on the merits and drawbacks of the one year out of college/NBA rule for another time. Instead, let’s examine how ridiculous it’s getting trying to asses your NBA potential if you are a point guard looking to make the league. Can anyone give you a fair assessment these days? Consider all the senior PGs who’ve been relegated to draft afterthoughts this season: Tyrese Rice, Jeremy Pargo, Darren Collison, Greg Paulus, just to name a few. All were, at some point in their careers, NBA prospects. Only Darren Collison is anywhere near the first round at this time, and may well drop lower than he would have had he come out any previous year. Juniors such as Scottie Reynolds, Sherron Collins, Ty Lawson, and Greivis Vasquez will know nothing more about their true draft status in two weeks as they do today or did a year or two ago.

The mixed messages are overwhelming: Stay in school, improve your stock. Come out now, next year will be full of point guards. It’s enough to create complete and utter chaos in the lives of young men whose only wish is to get a clear, realistic assessment of their draft position. When a thoroughly nondescript college freshman can lap you while scoring 8.5 points and shooting 30% from three, and doing absolutely nothing of note for a team that started in the top 5 and finished unranked, you really can only raise you hands and say “Uncle”. Quite likely joining him in the lottery will be a guy who barely played in Italy but has a retired shoe exec as a power broker. Should you stay in school or come out and try to get drafted ahead of these guys? A dart board with the words “stay” and “leave” would be just as efficient as listening to the white noise of advice at this point. Can you blame Patrick Mills for leaving St Mary’s with no guarantee of first round status? Or Nick Calathes leaving Florida?

Much as they’ve been surpassed this year, next year they’ll be surpassed by the John Walls, Abdul Gaddys, and Jared Cunninghams of the world. College point guards have shorter romances with NBA General Managers than the cast of Gossip Girl. Remember all the talk about the great decision Ty Lawson made coming back for his junior year? At least he won a championship. It certainly doesn’t look like he’ll be drafted any higher than he would last year. But at least he’ll be drafted. Gonzaga’s Jeremy Pargo – once a lottery candidate - will be lucky to crack the second round. Remember Dominic James from Marquette? AJ Abrams from Texas? Byron Eaton from Oklahoma State? I’m not kidding – all were NBA prospects at some point in the past four years. So star college point guards, I say, good luck to you. Good luck making sense of the conflicting, misguided, opportunistic advice that will come your way the next few years. Good luck sorting out anything of substance from people who don’t know your name, haven’t seen you play, and ultimately have all the power to determine if and when you get drafted.

Good luck making life-altering decisions based on opinions that change more frequently than the temperature. Just remember this: when all else fails, that dart board is probably just as good as anything else.


Coaching Carousel 101

With the recent firings of long-serving coaches Tom Green (FDU), Dennis Wolff (Boston U), Ben Braun (Cal), and Tubby Smith (Kentucky), and with the vultures seemingly circling the likes of Gary Williams (Maryland), Ernie Kent (Oregon), and Paul Hewitt (Georgia Tech), it is worthwhile to remember that not everyone lands a John Calipari or a Roy Williams to produce an instant fix. Here are 3 programs still trying to live down the firing of a long-serving, highly regarded coach:

Nebraska
The old coach: Danny Nee (1986-2000), 5 NCAA bids, an NIT title, multiple NBA draftees
Since his firing: 0 NCAA bids, 2 coaches, zero NBA players

Iowa
The old coach: Tom Davis (1986-1999), 9 NCAA bids, 3 Sweet Sixteens, many NBA draftees
Since his firing: 3 NCAA bids, 1 NCAA tournament win, 1 NBA draftee, 2 coaches

Virginia
The old coach: Jeff Jones (1990-1998), 5 NCAA bids, an Elite 8 appearance, 3 NBA draftees
Since his firing: 2 NCAA bids, 1 NCAA tournament win, 2 NBA draftees, 3 coaches


Celebrating the 2006-07 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets

I’ll end this column with a baffled look at one of the most talented, yet least accomplished college basketball teams of the past 20 years. They say you need at least 3 future pros to win the title… What if you have 4 on your roster? What about 5? The 2006-07 Georgia Tech team did not win any tournament games, losing to a scrappy UNLV team in the first round by 4. But in terms of future pros, the team can match or exceed many NCAA championship teams of the past few decades. How does a team with so much individual talent go so unnoticed? Let’s examine the future pros on this star-studded roster:

Top prospects Thaddeus Young and Javaris Crittenton, turned pro after their freshman season, and were promptly drafted in the top 20 of the first round that summer. Young’s departure was not a major shock, but the rise of Crittenton was a major blow to the continuity of the program, and in many ways he has yet to be replaced. Mario West, a reserve guard who started 20 games earlier in his career, turned out to be a defensive wiz in training camp with the hometown Atlanta Hawks. In 2 seasons so far, West has become a valued reserve, and his ball pressure skills have ruffled the feathers of none other than Dwyane Wade.

Next, we have Anthony Morrow, a 6’5 undrafted rookie who recently led the NBA in 3-point shooting. Notice, I didn’t say led rookies, or led undrafted rookies. Morrow led the NBA – the whole darn thing – the league with Ray Allen and Steve Nash and Kyle Korver. Anthony Morrow out-shot them all, despite wild fluctuations in playing time. Morrow makes it 4 future NBA players on the Georgia Tech roster, all of whom figured prominently in the rotation. And wouldn’t you know, a 5th player may well join this list later this month. Alade Aminu, a 6’10 senior, made such a splash in individual workouts and prospect scrimmages, he has climbed the draft boards well into the second round. Indeed, the 2006 Jackets may ultimately have featured no less than 5 future NBA players in the regular rotation.

If you wondered this past spring why so many top high school prospects signed with Paul Hewitt’s squad, you now have your answer. He may lead a team to the title game, or finish last in the ACC, but you can be sure about one thing with Paul Hewitt: he will prepare his players for a legitimate shot at the NBA.

Among college basketball prospects, that’s kind of a big deal.

Ehud Knoll is a sfaff writer for collegeinsider.com. EMAIL EHUD