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Seed
Paradox
February 7, 2008
 In
ancient Greek philosophy, Zeno of Elea used the Millet
Seed Paradox to suggest that human senses can be
insufficient and misleading indicators of reality. As
you will soon see, NCAA tournament seeds are also
insufficient and misleading, insomuch as they do not
always correlate directly with actual tournament
performance. In theory, there should be a clear,
consistent relationship between a team’s tournament
seed and the success it can expect to achieve. The
higher your seed, the lower the seeds of your foes,
and the more likely you are to advance - a
straightforward intuitive concept, and one that simply
is not correct. This illogical seeding paradox often
goes unnoticed, but has been associated with many of
the surprise runs in the 64/65-team tournament era. As
we near Selection Sunday, keep it in mind as you
contemplate the worthiness of your favorite team’s
bracket location.
The year was 1996. Mid majors were enjoying a banner
season, and several were preparing for the possibility
of lengthy tournament runs. As Selection Sunday
approached, three outstanding squads were gathered to
find out their seed and bracket: Bradley, Eastern
Michigan and Wisconsin Green Bay. All three had
completed impressive regular seasons and were
considered threats to advance into the second weekend.
And then, the great news: Bradley and Wisconsin-GB
received 8-seeds, and Eastern Michigan a 9-seed. So
much respect for their success, such high seeds
considering their conference affiliation, and
eventually, such short stays in the actual Big Dance.
Only Eastern Michigan won its first round game, and
immediately faced a Final 4 favorite in top-seeded
UConn, ultimately losing by 14. Since ’96, it has also
happened to Illinois State, Murray State, and Bucknell,
among others. An 8-9 trap in the opening round, at
best followed by a quick goodbye at the hands of a 1
seed in round two. While seeds 1-6 and 15-16 show
consistent patterns of tournament success very much as
expected, seeds 7-12, often resided by mid majors,
tell an entirely different story. From 1997 to 2007,
only one single 9-seed has made the Sweet 16. I could
not believe that number when I first researched it,
but this is in fact true (UAB in 2004). Over that
span, a 14 seed and two 13 seeds made the Sweet 16 –
and here is the real kicker – thirteen 10 seeds! You
read that right. Thirteen 10 seeds, one 9 seed. What
about eight seeds, you ask? Five have made the Sweet
16 in those years. Five, which is the same as 12
seeds, and only one less than 11 seeds.
Think about those numbers for second – and what they
mean in the grand scheme of the seeding process.
Instead of rewarding teams, giving an 8 or 9 seed to
an impressive mid-major candidate is frankly a
near-certain second round death sentence. The reality
is, the difference in Sweet 16 success rate between
1-seeds and 2-seeds is much bigger then it intuitively
ought to be. It might make sense in the first round,
with 16 seeds winless so far, but the second round
numbers are staggering and not easily explained. Why
are 2-seeds losing so often? And why are they losing
to 10 seeds more than 7 seeds? There have not been any
10 seeds in the Final Four over this time period,
though Kent and Gonzaga both came within a game. There
really is no logical reason for these numbers, but the
existence of the seeding paradox might come into play
on Selection Sunday in 2008. In an ironic twist,
several mid-majors with chances at upsets might in
time celebrate the fact that they lost those very
games!
Consider the case of Davidson, currently atop the
Southern Conference with a 15-6 record. The Wildcats
played UNC, Duke and UCLA in competitive games early
this season, and would have been in great at-large
shape had they won two of those three games. But what
if they had only won one of the marquee match-ups?
Would it have helped secure a dreaded 8-9 game in
March, instead of a 12 or 11 seed that might await the
Wildcats if they win the automatic bid? I would argue
that in fact, losing all three marquee games may well
benefit the Wildcats in the end. A single win would
not have offset loses to NC State, UNC-Charlotte, or
Western Michigan. Davidson would not have gotten a
high seed like Butler or Southern Illinois last
season. But, it would be difficult to give a
double-digit seed to a team with a win over a likely 1
or 2 seeds. Davidson would have been destined for an
8-9 game, and a short stay in the field of 65. Western
Kentucky would be in a similar boat had they hung on
to beat Tennessee on December 15th. Had UNC-Ashville
upset the Tar Heels in January, the Bulldogs would
still likely get a seed no higher than 8 or 9, and the
likely quick exit that follows. Strange as it may
seem, these teams may have gained more by hanging with
their highly regarded opponents than they would have
by beating them. Of course the notoriety and publicity
that come with an early-season upset are nice, but
they are nowhere near the attention gained during a
tournament run. And in order to be in a position for a
successful tournament run, it is strangely better to
be a 10 or 12 seed than an 8 or 9.
Got your own theory or elucidation for the seed
paradox? Send me your thoughts here at College
Insider, and maybe by Selection Sunday ‘08 we can put
together a sound theory to explain it.
Knight in Shining Armor?
I am not surprised by Bob Knight’s resignation a Texas
Tech (yet another of my 2008 conference wish list that
will not come true), but let’s wait at least 3 years
before declaring the Knight era truly over. Knight is
a basketball lifer, and after a year or two of
hunting, fishing, and cracking wise at the media, I
have to believe a part of him will be itching to get
back in the mix. Knight is 67, and in an age where Joe
Paterno continues to coach at 81, can hardly be
considered too old to come back. The list of coaches
who retired, only to return successfully, is long and
impressive: Dick Bennett, Homer Drew, Hugh Durham,
Steve Fisher, Eddie Sutton, Lefty Driesell, and Jerry
Tarkanian, among others. Pete Carril retired from
Princeton, but resurfaced as an NBA assistant for
another ten years. 73-year-old Howard Schnellenberger
just won a bowl game at Florida Atlantic. Sure, Knight
could be like Dean Smith or John Wooden, retiring from
coaching once and for all. But, if his health is up to
it, I would not be shocked at all to see Knight come
back for a final chapter at a mid major, a low major,
or perhaps even one of the service academies, bringing
his career full circle.
Beware the Bid Thieves
Looking ahead to championship week, how many
bid-thieves will crush the dreams of regular season
champions and swipe tournament bids from right under
their noses? Does anyone really expect Winthrop, Holy
Cross, Southern Illinois, North Texas, etc to go
quietly into the night? Not a chance. The likes of
Miami (Ohio), Central Conn. State and Nevada will also
be very tough outs. For upstarts like UNC-Ashville,
Stephen F. Austin, Lafayette, and others, a regular
season conference title will be great, but will
guarantee absolutely nothing come conference
tournament time.
Odds And Ends
Since freshman Tyler Newbold entered the starting
lineup, Utah State has gone 11-1, with Newbold
emerging as a rising star shooter in the WAC. A highly
regarded recruit in 2005, Newbold completed an LDS
Church Mission in 2007 and now looks like the heir
apparent to Aggies star Jaycee Carroll… If the Big 10
gets more tournament bids than the ACC, does that mean
the 2007 ACC-Big 10 challenge never really happened…
Dayton has been crushed by the injuries to Charles
Little and Chris Wright. And so has George Mason,
which saw a marquee win over a top 20 opponent lose
much of its luster. But on the flip side, the win over
Kansas State is looking better each passing month… Cal
forward Ryan Anderson has been outstanding, but don’t
overlook fellow sophomore Patrick Christopher, who
someday might just join Anderson in The League…
Georgia Tech’s recent run of improved play coincided
with the rising confidence of senior point guard Matt
Causey, who followed a solid game against UNC with
four straight double figure efforts. The bad news:
Causey is a senior, which means next year, for the
fifth straight season, the Yellow Jackets will have a
new point guard running the show – not exactly the
recipe for continuity.
Ehud Knoll is a sfaff writer for collegeinsider.com.
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