June 21, 2011

It happens nearly every draft: a gut-wrenching, agonizing decision, with millions of dollars and the future of an NBA franchise at stake. General managers, scouts, and coaching staffs can’t sleep for days, weighing the pluses and minuses of drafting one player over others. On draft night, reaction from the fans and media, whether positive, negative, or apathetic, is meaningless. But a few years down the line, there are some data points to analyze, and cloudy possibilities are slowly replaced by empirical evidence.

Once again in 2011, such a draft dilemma looms large for many of the high-drafting teams. With the first pick, should the Cleveland Cavaliers take Kyrie Irving or Derrick Williams? Who should be the second point guard drafted, Kemba Walker or Brandon Knight? And where should the top foreign prospects (Kanter, Vesely, Valanciunas) go?

These questions will be answered on draft night, but the true impact of the decisions won’t be known for 5 or even 10 years. So instead of worrying about 2011, let’s examine some recent draft day dilemmas, and how the various decisions stack up after a few years.

2005: The Dilemma: Bogut or the field? Marvin or the PGs?

The Decision: With the first pick, the Milwaukee Bucks took Utah center Andrew Bogut, and with the second pick, the pg-starved Atlanta Hawks drafted UNC forward Marvin Williams.

The Verdict in 2011: the thinking for both teams was 100% correct. The Bucks could not pass up the physical, skilled Australian, and the Hawks drafted on superstar potential instead of need. With the 26 year old Bogut, 2009-2010 showed an All-Star upside is still very much in play, and as the Bucks continue to mature, it would not be shocking to see Bogut emerge as a playoff star. While it is easy to second guess Atlanta bypassing Chris Paul and Deron Williams, the truth is good point guards come along every draft. Since 2005, we’ve seen the likes of Rajon Rondo, Kyle Lowery, Jordan Farmar, Mike Conley Jr., Aaron Brooks, Derrick Rose, Russell Westbrook, Mario Chalmers, and perhaps a dozen other serviceable-to-great point guards drafted. But, had Marvin Williams lived up to his enormous potential, he might well have been Kevin Durant before Durant: an athletic, tall forward with three point range and a high basketball IQ. Sure, Williams has lost all semblance of confidence as a Hawk, and may remain a role player the rest of his NBA career, but the gamble was worth it. Additionally, there is no guarantee either Chris Paul or Deron Williams would have committed to the Hawks long-term. So while the franchise was burned by a seemingly bad decision, the thinking behind the decision stands true even as Marvin Williams has flopped.

2006: The Dilemma: Bargnani or the field?

The Decision: With the first pick, the Toronto Raptors took Italian forward Andrea Bargnani.

The Verdict in 2011: if the Raptors had to do it all over again, they would most likely draft Texas forward LaMarcus Aldridge, who has unexpectedly blossomed into a 3rd-team All-NBA talent. However, the scoring numbers for Bargnani and Aldridge are very similar, both have shown improvement and durability, and the debate over which one will ultimately have the better NBA career remains open. If Toronto can field a team that best complements Bargnani’s unique skills, don’t be shocked if he has a Dirk-like transcendence in the second half of his career. As he showed in the final 3 games of the 2007 first round series against NJ, a locked-in Bargnani is a very tough cover. With all due respect to Rudy Gay, Rajon Rondo, and injury-prone Brandon Roy, the top two picks of 2006 would still most likely be the same, though in a reversed order.

2007: The Dilemma: 7 foot freshman pivot Greg Oden, or 6’9 wing/robo-rebounder Kevin Durant?

The Decision: With the first pick, Portland went with the center, eschewing the skilled but harder-to-peg forward.

The Verdict in 2011: on the surface, the decision seems a colossal mistake. Oden has been injury prone beyond belief, seemingly competing in a “can you top this” contest with Rockets center Yao Ming the past 4 years. Durant, on the other hand, has exploded as a bona fide superstar and media darling. But we are not judging the outcome here, only the decision, and the decision by Portland was the right one. Looking back at all NBA champions in the past 25 years, with the exception of the Jordan-led Bulls, each team had an all-star center or power-forward. Between Shaq, Duncan, Garnett, Hakeem, Laimbeer, the Wallace boys, Kareem, and now Dirk, you have countless all-star and all-NBA appearances for the group. Yes, each team also needed steady guard play, but more often than not, the lynchpin to success was a dominating center or forward, and sometimes both. Can Durant change that reality? Perhaps. But the idea that he could be successfully held in check by a 38 year old Jason Kidd in the playoffs should give pause to that notion. The Blazers were burned by the injury bug so far, but remember this: it was another injury prone center, Bill Walton, who led the Blazers to their one and only NBA championship. There is still hope for Oden to revive his career in a big way.

2008: The Dilemma: With the first pick, do the Bulls draft the polished Final Four star Derrick Rose, or the raw but highly skilled (and possibly crazy) Michael Beasley?

The Decision: With the first pick, the Bulls drafted Rose, passing up the likes of Beasley, Russell Westbrook, Kevin Love, and Brook Lopez among others

The Verdict in 2011: This one can only be called a runaway success for the Bulls so far. Rose has proven to be everything the team would want in a star – a league MVP, a stud on the court, and a trouble-free character guy off the court. However… Has Derrick Rose reached his peak at 22? While he certainly has room for growth, as proven by his Eastern Conference Finals struggles against Miami, a case can be made the Rose simply does not have much of a remaining “upside” to his game. Privately at least, this has to be a concern to the Bulls. At 6’2 or so, Rose is not the type of guard who can really add a post game to his arsenal. His offensive game will always be driven by speed and midrange jump-shooting. Defensively, Rose is already solid and could get even better, but his size limitations will always keep him from being a Jordan/Kobe/Lebron-type stopper. On the other hand, guys like Beasley, Love, Lopez, and even the more athletic Wesbrook have more room to develop and grow as players. If we have indeed seen the best of Rose, the possibility exists that he will be surpassed in the next few years by some of his draft class mates.

The Lesson for 2011: Draft second-guessing is as American as apple pie, and no matter what decisions Cleveland, Minnesota, Utah and the rest make, some fans will remain unhappy. But careers should be judged after they are completed, not half way through, and most certainly not on draft night. One season’s draft “mistake” could be a brilliant move by the same franchise just a few years later.

It will be particularly interesting to see if the Cavs go with Duke point-guard Kyrie Irving, a highly regarded talent since his high school days, or Arizona forward Derrick Williams. Williams is a self-made star who was not coddled nearly as much as a recruit, and has shown the willingness to work on his game year-round. Ironically, the only collegiate match-up between the two was in many ways the national coming out party for Williams, whose Wildcats pulled off a surprisingly easy upset of Duke in the 2011 Sweet 16. For Irving, NBA stardom would require bucking the trend of Duke point guards flaming out in the pros. And of course, there is a chance that 20 years from now it will be Kanter, Vesely, or even The Jimmer who winds up as the biggest story from the 2011 draft.

Ehud Knoll is a sfaff writer for collegeinsider.com. EMAIL EHUD