The
first two days of March Madness are the best two days in sports.
There is nothing quite like the opening round of the NCAA Men’s
Basketball Tournament. It’s difficult to recall an opening round
without some high drama. Whether it’s a 14-seed defeating a
3-seed or an epic battle between and 8 and 9-seeds, the first
two days provide plenty of memorable moments. 2008 should be no
exception.
THE EAST
A lot has been made about the fact that North Carolina is not a
very deep team. Depth can be somewhat overrated in the NCAA
Tournament. In conference tournament action you are often
playing three games or even four in as many days. That’s not the
case in the NCAA tournament. Barring injuries or foul trouble,
depth really should not be a major factor. You would obviously
love to have it, but there is a long list of teams that have
advanced to the Final Four without a deep rotation.
What North Carolina may lack in depth it makes up for in key
components. Much like UCLA with Darren Collison and
Kevin Love, UNC has Ty Lawson and Tyler Hansbrough.
Lawson is a great point guard who can create and Hansbrough was
the best player on the best team throughout the season.
If you are looking for a possible challenger, it might come from
Rick Pitino’s Louisville Cardinals. They had an early
exit from the Big East Tournament, but this was a team that
really started to come together over the final two months of the
regular season. The Cardinals have excellent guard play and a
nice post presence in David Padgett.
Another team to watch is the Washington State Cougars. Tony
Bennett has done an outstanding job with this program. They
came out of nowhere last season to have an outstanding regular
season, which got Coach Bennett a number of national coaching
honors. But his team didn’t get out of the first weekend of the
NCAA tournament. That will change this time around.
Aron Baynes has developed into a really nice banger. The
6-foot-10 Australian-product gives Washington State a nice post
presence. Like Louisville, the Cougars have excellent guards.
Senior Derrick Low brings a lot of leadership to the
floor and then there is Kyle Weaver who is a relative
unknown to most of the nation. At 6-foot-7 he can play three
spots on the floor. He rebounds, slashes, passes the ball well
and can score. He’s an outstanding player.
If Washington State and Notre Dame were to meet in the second
round, it would be a fun game to watch. Notre Dame’s Mike
Brey is often overlooked in discussion about top coaches in
college basketball. Like Coach Bennett, Mike has done an
outstanding job with his program. The Irish can score and
Washington State can defend. That would be an entertaining
contest.
An intriguing team in the region is St. Joseph’s. A few weeks
ago many wrote off the Hawks after a loss to La Salle, but
Phil Martelli’s team finished strong, including two wins
over Xavier in eight days. Should they meet, Louisville would
get all they can handle from St. Joe’s. It would not surprise me
at all to see the Hawks in the Sweet 16.
Ultimately I think Carolina emerges from the East and advances
to San Antonio.
THE MIDWEST
Last fall there was so much hype surrounding incoming freshmen
Michael Beasley (Kansas State) and O.J. Mayo (USC).
Neither disappointed this season and neither will probably
return for their sophomore seasons, but before they exit they
will face off in round one.
The Trojans did very well in the toughest conference in America
this season, something that will serve them well in the NCAA
tournament. I believe they will advance to second round to face
Wisconsin in a game similar to Notre Dame-Washington State. It
would be a battle of contrasting styles, with Tim Floyd (USC)
and Bo Ryan (Wisconsin) matching wits. I have seen Coach
Floyd’s team play a lot this season and I think they will
continue to play into next week.
The opening round game between Davidson and Gonzaga will match
two teams that use the non-conference season to better prepare
themselves for success in March. Gonzaga has been playing a
tough non-league schedule for many years now and few played a
tougher early-season schedule this season than Davidson (UCLA,
Duke, North Carolina).
Not that is necessarily means a lot, but Davidson does enter the
tournament playing great basketball. Gonzaga didn’t look nearly
as sharp down the stretch. The Zags don’t have the interior play
they have had in recent years, which should favor Davidson.
Mark Few has done an outstanding job with this program so
you can expect this one to go right down to the wire. This might
be one of the most entertaining first round games in the
tournament.
I would expect the top two seeds to meet in the Regional Final
next week. John Thompson III has done a tremendous job
again this season, but I don’t think they will return to the
Final Four. Kansas is playing as well as anyone in America right
now. They don’t have one guy that can hurt you -- they have
five. Balanced is the word I like to use to describe Bill
Self’s team. They really have no weaknesses. They can play
fast or they can grind it out. They can score and they can
guard.
The Jayhawks are Final Four bound.
THE SOUTH
As well as Kansas has played down the stretch it might be
difficult to argue that they have played better than Pittsburgh.
The Panthers looked very impressive in winning the Big East
Tournament. Many touted Georgetown as a No. 1 seed after
dispatching West Virginia in the Big East semi-finals. One night
later the Hoyas looked out of sorts against the Panthers.
Jamie Dixon’s team was ranked in the Top 10 earlier this
season, before injuries set them back. The return to the lineup
of Levance Fields has put them back into that group of
top teams in the country. Pittsburgh would create a lot of
problems for Memphis, in a potential Sweet 16 meeting.
John Calipari’s team lost only one game all season, but
very few believe the Tigers are a legitimate Final Four
candidate. Most will point out the fact that Conference-USA has
only one team in the field of 65 (Memphis). There is no question
that Memphis is one of the top teams in college basketball, but
in the NCAA Tournament it’s all about matchups. Granted
Pittsburgh could very well fail to advance to the Sweet 16, but
if they do I think the matchup may favor the Panthers.
While many don’t like Memphis’ chances, fewer believe Stanford
will make much noise in the tournament. Perhaps I am a little
bias, as I have seen a lot of Pac-10 basketball this season. But
I have also watched a lot of other teams and I do believe that
the Pac-10 teams can play with anyone.
Trent Johnson has done a terrific job with the Stanford
Cardinal. When I was coaching at San Diego, and we went to the
tournament in 2003, Trent was coaching at Nevada. His team
dominated Gonzaga and advanced to the Sweet 16 that season. Now
he has a team at Stanford capable of doing the same.
When most people talk about Stanford they start with the
7-footers, Brookand Robin Lopez, but Mitch
Johnson is an excellent point guard and a kid that a lot of
people are not real familiar with. In addition Stanford has a
roster full of outstanding role players. Kids that understand
what they have to do in order to give their team a chance to
win. This is a team that really plays within itself. They are
headed to the Sweet 16.
In the round of sixteen they will likely meet Texas and the
nation’s premier guard, D.J. Augustin. He works the pick
and roll, he’s excellent in the open floor, he can change speeds
and you cannot keep him in front of you. He’s really good.
Rick Barnes is an excellent tournament coach and he has
another very good basketball team. A win over Kansas probably
would have made the ‘Horns a No. 1 seed.
One of the best opening round games in the tournament will be
the Miami-St. Mary’s matchup. Randy Bennett has really
done a tremendous job of taking the St. Mary’s basketball
program to a higher level. The Gaels were ranked nationally for
most of the season, before a late season loss to Gonzaga. Coach
Bennett’s team is a year ahead of schedule. They will be a Top
25 team again next season and perhaps a Sweet 16 team. Miami is
an outstanding defensive team and the Hurricanes are better
offensively then people give them credit for. Frank Haith
has done a really nice job in Coral Gables. This will be a great
game to sit down and watch.
How good would a Pittsburgh-Texas regional final be, D.J.
Augustin against Levance Fields? I give a slight edge to Texas
to move on to San Antonio.
THE WEST
This is the “feel-good” region. Had Georgia lost to Arkansas in
the SEC championship it’s likely that Dennis Felton would
have been fired. Instead he’s in the tournament and he will
return to the sidelines in Athens, GA next season.
The last team selected for the field of 65 was the last team
anyone would have thought would be tournament quality four years
ago. Scott Drew took over a program that was virtually
non-existent. He has done a remarkable job of completely turning
around the fortunes of the Baylor program. He deserves national
coach of the year consideration.
Two years ago Drake was nothing more then a “w” for every other
team in the Missouri Valley Conference. Two years later they
have 28 wins. Keno Davis has done one of the best jobs in
America this season. His team plays a smart and controlled style
of basketball. They shoot extremely well and do not make foolish
decisions. Adam Emmenecker, who was the Player of the
Year in the Missouri Valley, just does not turn the basketball
over. He has a ridiculous 4-1 assist-to-turnover ratio.
This region has some of the best human-interest stories in the
field. It also has one of best teams in America in UCLA.
The health status of Kevin Love and Luc Richard Mbah a Moute
will go a long way to determining how far the Bruins can
advance. That stated Ben Howland seems to find a way.
Coach Howland is absolutely one of the top coaches in the game.
As good as his teams are in the regular season, they raise their
level of play in the tournament.
Love played in the toughest conference in America on the team
that won both the regular season and conference tournament
championships. That gets my vote for National Freshman of the
Year. Russell Westbrook and Darren Collison give the
Bruins an outstanding backcourt and Josh Shipp has been a
big contributor.
On the other side of the bracket is Duke, which may have been a
No. 1 seed with a ACC tournament championship. The No. 2-seeded
Blue Devils are lacking in the middle so they will have to shoot
it well to go deep into the tournament. They will spread you out
defensively and try to penetrate and kick. And you know Mike
Krzyewski teams always guard you.
A second-round matchup against either Arizona or West Virginia
would be fun to watch. Few players in America are more important
to their team than WVU’s Joe Alexander.
Many believed Arizona was not deserving of a bid to the
tournament. This was a trying season, in many ways, for the
Wildcats. A lot has been made about the timing of the
announcement that Lute Olson will return next season.
Many believe it will be a distraction. I disagree. I believe the
announcement Coach Olson's return will motivate the team as
opposed to being a distraction. They will find comfort in
knowing the coach they signed up to play for will be with them
next year. It may even convince the great freshman guard,
Jarred Bayless to stick around another year.
Arizona could be a Final Four contender next season. This season
it will be another Pac-10 team. UCLA will advance from the West.
Brad Holland spent 15 seasons as a head coach at San Diego and
Cal State Fullerton, twice being named West Coast Conference
Coach of the Year at USD. An All-American at UCLA, Holland was a
member of the 1980 World Champion Los Angeles Lakers.
The
first two days of March Madness are the best two days in sports.
There is nothing quite like the opening round of the NCAA Men’s
Basketball Tournament. It’s difficult to recall an opening round
without some high drama. Whether it’s a 14-seed defeating a
3-seed or an epic battle between and 8 and 9-seeds, the first
two days provide plenty of memorable moments. 2008 should be no
exception.
